Frank Krishner looks at the Assam Assembly Elections in this series.

In the tea garden areas, it would appear that so-called ‘Friendly fights’ between the INDIA alliance partners will sour the pitch for the Congress, with the Trinamool Congress and the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha being the spoilers. It looks like advantage BJP, say political observers.

In Assam’s Dibrugarh District, a ‘straight fight, between BJP and Congress is expected in the newly constituted Chabua-Lahowal Assembly constituency. Sitting BJP legislator Binod Hazarika squares off against Congress’s Pranjal Ghatowar in what promises to be one of the most closely watched contests in the district.

Hazarika has considerable political experience. He was the sitting MLA of the now-abolished Lahowal Assembly constituency, having won it in 2021 by defeating Aam Aadmi Party candidate Manoj Dhanowar by a margin of 17,248 votes.

Hazarika had made BJP history in the 2016 elections from the Chabua seat, defeating three-time Congress MLA Raju Sahu by a massive margin of 30,754 votes.

Facing him is 45-year-old congress candidate Pranjal Ghatowar, who hails from and has long championed the tea community. The constituency has 1,77,238 voters, of whom approximately 33% belong to the tea community.

However, it’s not so simple Jharkhand Mukti Morcha’s Bhupen Singh Murari and Trinamool Congress’ Inus Kumar Kandapan are also in the fray, also wooing the tea-tribes.
A reminder, In 2021, Pranjal was defeated in the 2021 assembly elections. He contested from the now-abolished Moran constituency and was defeated by BJP’s Chakradhar Gogoi by 22,341 votes.

Khowang: advantage BJP

Meanwhile, the newly carved Khowang Assembly constituency is headed for a sharp contest between sitting BJP MLA Chakradhar Gogoi and Asom Jatiya Parishad (AJP) president Lurinjyoti Gogoi, whose party is an ally of Congress.

Lurinjyoti Gogoi had contested the 2024 Lok Sabha polls from Dibrugarh but lost to Union Minister Sarbananda Sonowal.

With an electorate of around 1.7 lakh, the seat is dominated by tea garden workers and rural Assamese communities, making it a politically important constituency in upper Assam. Prabhakar Das of the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) and Independent Biju Dowarah are also in the fray.

The constituency has a complex social mix, with the Ahom community (roughly 31%) and tea garden voters (nearly 29.5%) emerging as key decisive blocs. Notably, no tea tribe candidate is contesting this time, and surprisingly, JMM has not fielded a tribal candidate either.

BJP’s Chakradhar Gogoi boasts a strong record, having defeated former Union minister Paban Singh Ghatowar in 2016 and his son Pranjal Ghatowar in 2021, thereby consolidating the party’s hold in the region.

Though there is some dissatisfaction with the sitting MLA, the real test will be how effectively Lurinjyoti Gogoi can translate that discontent into votes.

  Assam, Assam Assembly elections, BJP, Indian national Congress, Jharkhand Mukti Morcha, Northeast, tea tribes