Tibet’s spiritual leader is set to reveal one succession plan. China has another. Where is India in this tussle? Frank Krishner elaborates.

On July 2nd, 2025, just days before his 90th birthday, the Dalai Lama is set to deliver a video message that will captivate Tibetans and Vajrayana Buddhists in Sikkim and worldwide.

This is a highly anticipated statement. It is is expected to clarify his succession plans, addressing the future of Tibetan spiritual leadership. For the 7 million Tibetans in China, the 150,000-strong diaspora, and Vajrayana followers globally, this moment carries profound significance. It will shape the path forward for their faith and identity.

The Dalai Lama has already revealed some details of his succession plans. He said his heir would be born in the free world. There been talk of emanation as an option that would allow him to train his own successor. Still, people close to him now say that reincarnation is more likely.

Active , but Slowing Down

Approaching 90, the Dalai Lama remains remarkably active in Dharamsala, his adopted home in northern India.

In mid-June, a journalist from The Economist, who visited Dharamsala, reported that he greeted 300 devotees individually during a group audience, offering blessings and advice for over an hour with only a brief pause for water. Such engagements occur five times a week, alongside occasional public teachings.

However, the signs of ageing cannot be ignored: he arrives at events in a golf buggy, assisted by aides, and has rarely left Dharamsala since knee surgery in America last year.

The Succession Question

The July 2nd message will address a critical question: what happens after the Dalai Lama’s passing?

Tibetan tradition holds that senior lamas identify a child as his reincarnation. Yet, the Dalai Lama has suggested alternatives, such as forgoing rebirth or “emanating” as another person while alive. In a recent book, he stated his heir would be born in the free world, with reincarnation currently seen as more likely.

This choice could lead to a leadership vacuum for up to two decades as the 15th Dalai lama matures, a concern for Tibetans and Vajrayana Buddhists awaiting clarity.

China’s Looming Interference

China, which annexed Tibet in 1951, asserts that it has the sole authority to approve the next Dalai Lama, rejecting emanation.

The Chinese Communist Party is likely to appoint a rival successor, as it did after the Panchen Lama’s death in 1989, when it abducted the Dalai Lama’s chosen successor and installed its own.

China may pressure nations to recognize its appointee, punishing those supporting an alternative.

For Tibetans and Vajrayana Buddhists, particularly in Sikkim, where Tibetan Buddhism thrives, this makes the succession a test of resisting Chinese coercion and preserving spiritual autonomy.

Risks of Fragmentation

The Dalai Lama holds unparalleled authority among Tibetans and Vajrayana followers.

China, despite labelling him a separatist, has sought his endorsement of its rule. His passing could fragment the Tibetan movement, potentially sparking a radical push for independence.

While unlikely to succeed soon, this could challenge China’s global image and domestic unity.

Penpa Tsering, leader of the Tibetan government-in-exile, believes the risks are manageable, noting that the Dalai Lama relinquished political power in 2011, with other lamas poised to provide religious leadership during the transition.

America’s double-speak under Trump

Global backing is vital for Tibetans and Vajrayana Buddhists to counter Chinese interference.

America’s response is vital. The United States supports Tibetan autonomy. During the first Trump administration, Congress passed a law authorising sanctions against Chinese officials interfering in the succession. In March this year, Marco Rubio, America’s secretary of state, pledged continued support.

But it’s complicated. How President Trump views Tibet and the Dalai Lama is unclear. The Dalai Lama who once said he lacked “moral principle”. Actually, the Trump administration has cut some $22 million in annual funding for Tibetans, which is equivalent to more than half the government-in-exile’s budget.

Mr Trump is less concerned by human rights, and his approach to China is dominated by a trade war. Dolma Tsering Teykhang, the deputy speaker of the Tibetan exiles’ parliament, notes that Mr Trump was once popular with Tibetans because he was seen as tough on China.

What will India and the others do?

India is also a crucial factor. It provides a home to the Dalai Lama, the government-in-exile and half the Tibetan diaspora. If the next one is found in India, as many expect, its government would probably offer him sanctuary. That would be politically popular as the Dalai Lama is revered by many Indian Buddhists and Hindus. And India has considered his presence a source of leverage over China.

The relationship between China and India is rife with complications, and the Modi government may not want to be seen as bowing down to China’s wishes.

However, India’s improving ties with China and a $99 billion trade deficit in 2024-25 may temper its stance.

The European Union said in June that the next Dalai Lama should be chosen “without government interference”. No country is likely to risk having official contact with the next Dalai Lama, as China has imposed increasing commercial costs on those that do. The incumbent has not met a world leader since Barack Obama in 2016.

Still, several democracies support the Dalai Lama’s “Middle Way” for autonomy and highlight rights abuses in Tibet, offering hope to Vajrayana communities.

The Future of the Tibetan Movement

The July 2nd announcement may not resolve internal debates among Tibetans and Vajrayana Buddhists.

In India, for instance, non Tibetan Vajrayana Buddhists feel a sense of isolation within the monasteries, which are seen to be ‘dominated’ by high-ranking Tibetan monks. The Karmapa succession in the Rumtek monastery in Sikkim was fraught with controversy, some years ago.

Whether that continues could depend on how the Tibetan movement evolves after the Dalai Lama’s death. Lhagyari Namgyal Dolkar, a member of the Tibetan exiles’ parliament, thinks the Middle Way reflects outdated hopes that China will liberalise politically.

Calling instead for independence would inspire more Tibetans and foreigners, she reckons. Others think such talk will provoke stricter policies in Tibet and alienate foreign supporters.

For Sikkim’s Vajrayana Buddhists, the July statement will probably bring with it the challenge of preserving their spiritual heritage amid geopolitical tensions.

What lies in the future?

The Dalai Lama’s July 2nd message will be a ‘defining moment’ for Tibetans and Vajrayana Buddhists in Sikkim and beyond.

As they await clarity on his succession, the global community watches a delicate interplay of faith, ethnicity, and politics.

The Dalai lama’s announcement will result in a challenging proposition : Can Tibetan and Vajrayana identity be secure in the absence of the man who embodies it?