In two days, His Holiness the Dalai Lama celebrates his 90th Birthday, but he’s already lit a candle, and set a fuse for a geo-political powder keg. Frank Krishner elaborates:
The Dalai Lama, spiritual head of the Tibetan and Vajrayana Buddhist sects, has ignited a fresh diplomatic and spiritual confrontation with China. He has declared that the Gaden Phodrang Trust, a non-profit institution he established, will have sole authority to identify his reincarnation.
This announcement, on Wednesday, March 2, days before his 90th birthday on 6 July 2025, directly counters China’s insistence that Beijing must approve his successor. The Dalai Lama’s has in this move, re-affirmed his authority over Tibetan Buddhist traditions. It also has significant implications for India, where he has lived in exile since 1959.
A Defiant Stand Against China
In a video address at the 15th Tibetan Religious Conference in Dharamsala, India, on Wednesday, the Dalai Lama, Tenzin Gyatso, the 14th in a lineage dating back to 1391 CE, assured followers that he will reincarnate as the next spiritual leader.
He outlined a succession process, vesting authority in the Gaden Phodrang Trust, dismissing China’s claim to control the process.
China’s foreign ministry, ever watchful, responded swiftly, with spokesperson Mao Ning asserting that the Dalai Lama’s succession must comply with Chinese laws, religious rituals, and historical conventions, including the use of the Qing dynasty’s golden urn method for selecting reincarnations.
The Dalai Lama’s stance is rooted in his rejection of Chinese interference in Tibetan religious affairs. In his book Voice for the Voiceless, released in March 2025, he stated that his successor would be born outside China, a pointed rebuke of Beijing’s demand that reincarnations occur within its borders.
He urged Tibetans to reject any candidate chosen for political purposes by China, criticising the Chinese Communist Party’s involvement in a religious system they ideologically oppose.
The Mystical Reincarnation Process
Tibetan Buddhist tradition holds that the Dalai Lama, considered a manifestation of Avalokiteshvara, the Bodhisattva of Compassion, reincarnates to continue his spiritual work.
The process of identifying a reincarnation is steeped in mysticism and ritual.
After a Dalai Lama’s death, senior monks and high lamas interpret signs—dreams, visions, or prophetic statements from the deceased leader—to guide their search. An oracle may be consulted, and a search team is dispatched to find boys born around the time of the previous Dalai Lama’s death who exhibit extraordinary qualities.
The current Dalai Lama was identified at age two in 1937 in Taktser, now in China’s Qinghai province.
A search party, guided by signs such as the orientation of his predecessor’s embalmed body and visions in a sacred lake, located him after a series of tests.
The child, Lhamo Thondup, correctly identified possessions of the 13th Dalai Lama, confirming his status. He was enthroned in 1940 at the Potala Palace in Lhasa.
The Qing Dynasty Golden Urn method
The Qing dynasty’s golden urn method, introduced in 1793, was a Chinese-imposed system for selecting Tibetan Buddhist reincarnations, including the Dalai Lama. Names of candidates were written on lots or tally sticks and placed in a golden urn.
A high official, often under Qing supervision, drew a lot to determine the reincarnation, aiming to curb Tibetan autonomy and ensure Beijing’s control over religious appointments.
Tibetans often view this as a political tool, not a spiritual one, and many, including the current Dalai Lama, reject its legitimacy, favouring traditional methods guided by visions, oracles, and tests.
India’s Firm Support
India, host to the Dalai Lama and the Tibetan government-in-exile in Dharamsala, has firmly backed his authority over his succession.
On Thursday, Union Minister for Minority Affairs Kiren Rijiju, attending events in Dharamsala to mark the Dalai Lama’s 90th birthday, declared, “The right to decide on his successor rests solely with the Dalai Lama himself.”
Rijiju, alongside Janata Dal (United) leader Lallan Singh, represented the Indian government at the celebrations, underscoring the event’s geo-political significance.
India’s position is a direct challenge to China’s claims and reflects its strategic interest in countering Beijing’s influence in the region.
The Dalai Lama’s exile in India since 1959, following a failed uprising against Chinese rule in Tibet, has long been a point of contention in India-China relations.
By supporting the Dalai Lama’s succession plan, India reinforces its role as a protector of Tibetan culture and autonomy, while subtly asserting its geopolitical stance against China’s expansionist policies.
The Dalai Lama-China Equation and India’s Stakes
The Dalai Lama’s announcement deepens the ongoing tussle between Tibetan spiritual authority and Chinese state control.
China’s annexation of Tibet in 1950 and subsequent crackdown have made the Dalai Lama a symbol of resistance, both spiritually and politically.
Beijing views him as a separatist threat, while he advocates for a “Middle Way” approach, seeking autonomy for Tibet within China rather than independence.
His decision to vest succession authority in the Gaden Phodrang Trust undermines China’s strategy to install a pliant successor to neutralise Tibetan resistance.
For India, the Dalai Lama’s move is a diplomatic boon.
Hosting the Tibetan government-in-exile and approximately 100,000 Tibetan refugees, India has a vested interest in supporting the Dalai Lama’s legacy.
The India-China border, particularly along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in Ladakh and Arunachal Pradesh, remains a flashpoint, with tensions flaring since the 2020 Galwan clash.
By endorsing the Dalai Lama’s autonomy, India strengthens its moral and strategic position, aligning with global criticism of China’s human rights record in Tibet.
Without a doubt the Dalai Lama’s presence in India enhances its soft power, projecting it as a defender of religious freedom and cultural diversity.
However, this risks provoking China, which could retaliate through border incursions or economic measures.
India therefore has to prudently balance its support for the Dalai Lama, with the need to manage bilateral ties with China, a key trading partner and regional rival.
Vajrayana Buddhists welcome the stability of tradition
The Dalai Lama’s statement puts to rest speculation, which he himself had fuelled, that he might be the last in his lineage.
His 2011 statement and recent reaffirmation clarify that the Gaden Phodrang Trust will oversee the recognition of the 15th Dalai Lama, ensuring the 600-year-old institution endures.
For Tibetans, this is a consolation and the foundation of hope, preserving their spiritual and cultural identity against Chinese assimilation efforts.
As the Dalai Lama approaches his 90th birthday, his health remains a concern, but his resolve to safeguard Tibetan Buddhism’s future is unwavering.
By empowering the Gaden Phodrang Trust and gaining India’s backing, he has laid a foundation to protect his reincarnation process from Chinese manipulation, ensuring his legacy endures in a world where Tibet’s fate remains contested.
Dalai Lama Challenges China with Succession Plan, Bolstering India’s Stance added by FRANK KRISHNER on
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Very informative and ‘explained’ article involving major stakeholders India, China and Tibet. Enjoyed reading this piece. Thank you Sir.